Australian coal exports to Asia seen powering on
Date: 16-Oct-02
Country: AUSTRALIA
Australian coal exports, already worth a total of A$13.3 billion ($7.3 billion) in 2001/02, would double by 2015 despite the Kyoto protocols on greenhouse gas emission, the conference was told.
"Demand for coal will be largely driven by industrial and household demand for electricity. This rapid growth will be the driving force behind continued growth in demand for thermal coal in our region," Peter Coates, chief executive officer, Xstrata Coal Australia , told the conference.
Coates sees a dramatic increase in thermal coal imports by Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) group between 1999 and 2010.
Australian coal producers were gearing up to fill rising Asian demand by doubling its exports by 2015, Coates said.
Xstrata is one of Australia's largest thermal coal producers and is listed on the London and Swiss Stock Exchanges as part of the Glencore International AG commodities giant.
Efficiency gains and freedom from port constraints and political instability would allow Australia to boost production to a forecast 180 million tonnes of thermal coal by 2015, up from around 90 million tonnes in 2000, he said.
This would come about mainly through new greenfields capacity, backed by expansion of existing mines, he said, quoting forecasts by industry consultant Barlow Jonker.
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Coates said imported thermal coal by Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the ASEAN countries would rise by 68 million tonnes to just over 200 million tonnes by 2010, compared with 1999.
"In the current decade the Asian region is expected to see a continuation of its high growth in demand for energy," he said, delivering a keynote speech on the energy trade.
Developing Asian countries alone were expected to increase total energy demand by 60 percent between 1999 and 2010, and by a further 42 percent between 2010 and 2020, he said.
Energy demand by industrialised countries of Asia, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, would grow by 13 percent and 11 percent respectively for the same periods, he said.
Australia, Indonesia, China and to a lesser extent South Africa, would remain the major coal suppliers to Asia, after Australia retained its leading position despite rapid growth by Indonesian and Chinese exports in recent years, he said.
Indonesia's thermal coal export growth would taper off to 89 million tonnes in 2020 from 71 million tonnes in 2001, he said.
"The potential for the Indonesian coal industry to continue to increase its exports will depend on its attractiveness to investors, political stability and the rate of growth in domestic demand," he said.
China's thermal coal exports are also seen levelling off, after leaping to 67 million tonnes in 2001. Exports in 2002 are seen falling below those of 2001.
China's domestic demand for energy was growing fast, its port and rail infrastructure was under pressure, while the country's entry to the World Trade Organisation would place it under increasing pressure to wind back coal subsidies, Coates said.
The South African coal industry would continue to look to Europe and the Mediterranean as its major markets.
Australia was free of the major problems which constrained its thermal coal competitors, he said.
