Iraq has oil. But North Korea has 11,000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, capital of the world's 13th-richest country, and is surrounded by major allies and trading partners of the United States who do not want instability on their patch.

"The situation is absurd," said one U.S. arms control analyst. "The U.S. wouldn't dare try to apply the standards it is attempting to impose in Iraq to North Korea because the Asian region would not tolerate an attack on North Korea.

"This is blatantly inconsistent."

North Korea has been consistent, however. The reclusive Kim is doing everything he can to force Washington to sit down at the negotiating table through open provocation.

Kim has all but admitted enriching uranium for a nuclear bomb, has withdrawn from a global treaty preventing the spread of atomic arms, has threatened to resume missile testing and has poured out propaganda about visits to inspire frontline troops.

Most recently, Kim's trucks have been driving around his Yongbyon nuclear complex in broad daylight and in full view of U.S. satellites, as if moving plutonium rods out of the ponds in which they have lain untouched for eight years and into a plant to be reprocessed into weapons.

While Saddam Hussein insists he has no weapons of mass destruction, Kim could hardly be more of a show-off.

"Tactically, he is raising the uncertainties with this truck and rod game," said Nick Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

That raises concerns that Kim will press ahead and Washington will ignore his provocations until one side blinks.

"It's a roll of the dice, and no one wants to test North Korean restraint," said Michael Reiss, dean of the International Affairs College of William and Mary in Virginia.

But Kim has a timetable. He worries that if the United States completes regime change in Iraq, Washington, which has 37,000 troops stationed in South Korea, could turn its military machine towards his isolated state.

"I think there is a serious danger," said John Steinbruner, professor of public policy at the University of Maryland, referring to North Korean nervousness that it would be next to find itself in U.S. sights if a U.S. invasion of Iraq succeeded.

"The (U.S.) administration may have trouble meeting that timescale," Steinbruner said.

It is at that stage that North Korea and its leader may enter uncharted territory.

"This drama reaches its crescendo around the time the United States is predicted to be involved in Iraq operations and that makes sense from a North Korean standpoint," said Eberstadt.

"It's all a zero sum game."

So far, Kim has followed the strategy map laid out by his father, who ruled North Korea from its birth after World War Two until his death in 1994, just as that nuclear crisis was reaching resolution with a deal to freeze the programme in return for U.S. assistance.

Kim faces two real choices, analysts say. Either declare North Korea a nuclear power or reach an understanding with the United States that involves genuine dismantling of the nuclear programme.

Both are dangerous - the former from abroad and the latter at home. Both take the heir to the world's first communist dynasty onto new ground in a year when his strategy has been distinguished by tactical errors on every front, except when playing the nuclear card beloved of his late father.

The dangers are not only for Kim and North Korea.

Failure to engage holds risks for Washington, which does not want to see Pyongyang in possession of nuclear arms.

"By not talking to them, we jeopardise our relationship with South Korea and our stature in Asia," said one U.S. analyst. And there is no guarantee that engagement will succeed.