Economic Upturn Means Bumper Year for Trucks, Buses
Date: 12-Jul-04
Country: GERMANY
Author: Michael Shields, European Auto Correspondent
Global sales of commercial vehicles rose by eight percent in the first half as nearly all major markets posted double-digit growth, Bernd Gottschalk, president of the German Automotive Industry Association (VDA), told a media seminar on the sector.
"We can already say with confidence that this year will be characterized by well-filled order books, full utilization of capacity and secure jobs in the commercial vehicles industry," he said.
The VDA forecasts 2004 global sales will rise six percent to 9.53 million units amid growth of 16 percent in the United States, 24 percent in the Mercosur zone, 14 percent in the new European Union members and five percent in western Europe.
China, where demand for trucks as buses has surpassed that of the United States and western Europe combined, saw sales of commercial vehicles rise by a fifth in the first half, leaving Japan as Asia's laggard in a generally buoyant region.
Fleet replacements and new products that save fuel are attracting clients, while Europe is getting a boost from the European Union's eastwards expansion and forthcoming tougher environmental standards, executives said.
"It is clear that Europe of 25 (EU members) is going to have a major influence on the transportation of goods, materials and people and that will be very good for industry and for us," said Jose Maria Alapont, the head of Fiat's Iveco division.
CHINA BOON OR THREAT?
Tougher EU environmental standards set to take effect in 2006 and in 2008/09 could also spur demand for modern vehicles with few harmful emissions, the executives said, but they added customers face higher costs for the scrubbing technology that lets trucks and buses meet the new norms.
Officials played down the potential threat that joint venture partners in China could use their access to western technology to mount an assault on western markets.
"Protecting intellectual property rights was and remains an issue in China," said Eckhard Cordes, the head of DaimlerChrysler's sector-leading commercial vehicles division.
But Chinese officials were addressing the problem, he added, and in the meantime western manufacturers were rolling out technology - for instance for environmental protection - to meet Chinese norms while holding back cutting-edge know-how.
Hakan Samuelsson, designated chief executive of Germany's MAN AG and head of its trucks division, said China could well emerge as a center for buying cut-price components.
Transport costs were too high for Chinese manufacturers to sell finished commercial vehicles in Europe, he added, but they could eventually make life hard in some export markets that European trucks and buses have traditionally dominated.
Samuelsson saw room for more alliances among manufacturers to save costs by jointly developing vehicles or parts. He would not rule out more mergers in a sector that has already consolidated to a great extent, but added:
"For the next couple of years the speculation (about this) will be lower because we are going into a better business environment."
