Hurricane Estimate Lowered for Atlantic, Caribbean
Date: 10-Aug-04
Country: USA
Author: Michael Christie
A few days after the season's first hurricane, Alex, grazed the coast of North Carolina, William Gray of Colorado State University said his team now expected 13 tropical storms to form. He had predicted in May that there would be 14 tropical storms.
Gray said seven of the 13 would become hurricanes, and of those, three would become powerful Category 3 or higher hurricanes with winds of more than 111 mph that could devastate towns and lives if they strike populated areas.
"Based on atmospheric changes from late May to early August, including an unexpected minor warming of sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific indicating possible weak El Nino conditions, we have slightly decreased our seasonal hurricane forecast," Gray said in a statement.
"We expect storm activity in August and September to be above average, however, October is expected to be below average."
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also predicted a busier-than-average season, with 12 to 15 tropical storms. It expects six to eight of those to become hurricanes.
The swirling weather systems that become tropical storms and hurricanes are given names when sustained winds reach 39 mph. Storms become hurricanes at 74 mph.
Tens of millions of people on Caribbean islands, the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico coast, and on the vulnerable coastlines of Central America and Mexico, brace for hurricanes every season, which runs from the beginning of June to the end of November.
Gray said there was a 68 percent chance of a big hurricane hitting the U.S. coast in 2004, compared to a long-term average of 52 percent. Previously, Gray said the possibility of a major hurricane hitting the United States was 71 percent.
An average season has 9.6 tropical storms, with 5.9 reaching hurricane strength. On average, 2.3 will be major hurricanes.
The first two months of the season passed without a tropical storm. But August began with a bang when Alex abruptly materialized off South Carolina on Sunday and became a Category 2 hurricane, with 100 mph winds, two days later. It caused no injuries or deaths when it grazed the Outer Banks, an island chain off North Carolina that is popular with tourists.
Last September, Hurricane Isabel came ashore in roughly the same area and was directly blamed for 16 deaths and damage worth $3.37 billion.
