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Atlantic hurricanes should slow in October - forecaster
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USA: October 4, 2004


MIAMI - A noted storm forecaster offered Floridians some good news last week as they mopped up from an unprecedented four hurricanes in six weeks by forecasting that the disastrous Atlantic hurricane season will go out with a whimper rather than a bang.


Following a period in which millions of people in the Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts were on hurricane alert constantly, October may bring only three more storms, two of which may become hurricanes, said William Gray of Colorado State University in an updated storm forecast.

Little hurricane activity is expected in November, he said. The Atlantic season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Gray also said the region should not expect another season with so many storms in such a short time.

"This year has been a once-in-a-lifetime kind of year," Gray said in a written statement. "Although Floridians should always be prepared for landfalling hurricanes, they should not expect what we have experienced this year to become the norm for future years."

Twelve tropical storms formed in the first four months of the season. Seven turned into hurricanes, with sustained winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or greater, and six of those were "intense" hurricanes with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph).

An insurance industry group said last week the four storms that hit Florida may produce damage claims of $23 billion, surpassing claims for 1992's Hurricane Andrew, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

CRUSHING SIX WEEKS

Although forecasters have said for years that Atlantic hurricane activity is increasing, the crushing six-week period in which Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne smacked Florida is unprecedented in 130 years of hurricane records, Gray said.

If Gray's prediction holds true, the 2004 season would see a total of 15 "named" storms, including nine hurricanes and six intense hurricanes. Tropical cyclones are given names when sustained winds reach 39 mph (63 kph).

The average season sees 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

Numbers provide little comfort for storm-weary Floridians. Tens of thousands remained without electricity last week after the passage of Hurricane Jeanne a week ago.

The Insurance Information Institute, which put estimated claim payments from the four hurricanes at between $22 billion and $23 billion, said only the $32 billion in insured losses from the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States exceeded estimates from Charley, Ivan, Frances and Jeanne combined.

Claims from Hurricane Andrew totaled $15.5 billion, or $20 billion in today's dollars, the group said.

"Floridians should view this year's onslaught of hurricane activity as a rare anomaly," Gray said. "We would not recommend that anyone move out of Florida or decide not to move to Florida solely because of the threat of hurricanes."

As a tropical storm, Jeanne caused floods that killed 2,400 people in Haiti. The four hurricanes combined killed dozens more in Grenada, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and the United States.


Story by Jim Loney


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE

Reuters



© 2008 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
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