Bush win could hold mixed prospects for Blair
Date: 08-Nov-04
Country: UK
Author: Mike Peacock
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said on Thursday that the U.S. president would not use his second term to attack Iran, could be convinced to commit to the Middle East peace process and might change his mind about climate change.
Officials said Blair told his top ministers - many of whom secretly wanted a John Kerry win - the result gave a chance to move forward on a variety of issues, including the Middle East.
But others are less sure, saying Bush will play havoc with Blair's international goals.
Short-term, the advantage of having Bush in power as Iraqi elections and an onslaught against insurgents loom, is clear - Blair would have looked isolated over Iraq had Bush lost.
"I think that Blair will be silently relieved," said Wyn Grant, politics professor at Warwick University. "It suggests it is possible to be involved in war in Iraq and win re-election."
But members of Blair's Labour party, many of whom remain bitter about his decision to follow Washington to war in Iraq, said that boil could have been lanced if Bush had been ousted.
"He has always been seen as the number one bad guy," one Labour parliamentarian said.
Now, Blair faces his own election, probably in May 2005, with Bush continuing to appear on British television screens.
The premier's popularity ratings have plunged over Iraq, although opinion polls still give his Labour Party a lead, leaving him comfortably poised for a third term in power.
"There is no doubt the Bush relationship has given him enormous political difficulties," Blair's former press secretary Alastair Campbell said. "But the political hit has been taken on this and won't necessarily get worse."
FOREIGN POLICY CONFLICTS
It is on the international stage that the prime minister may find Bush most problematic.
As president of the Group of Eight leading nations next year, Blair has declared Britain would prioritise Africa's problems and climate change. The latter now looks difficult, if not doomed.
Bush has rejected the Kyoto Protocol on cutting greenhouse gases, of which America is the world's biggest producer.
"That's not an easy issue for Bush to shift on. He may be prepared to make cosmetic, face-saving moves to help Blair, but I can't see him making a fundamental shift," Grant said.
Straw expressed optimism but even he admitted: "We have a big job to do ... to explain to them why we believe it is in everybody's interests to move on climate change."
Blair's ambition to make Britain a leader at the heart of Europe and act as a bridge with Washington also looks troubled.
"I am sure almost the whole of continental Europe was hoping for a Kerry victory," pollster and analyst Peter Kellner said, predicting U.S.-EU relations would deteriorate further.
And Blair's battering over Iraq means he could not back another U.S. military venture. His aides say none is on the cards but a tougher line on Iran, in particular, is now likely.
Straw's predecessor Robin Cook, a prominent critic of the invasion of Iraq, said hawks in the Bush administration who pressed for that war were now lobbying for some sort of action against Iran over its nuclear ambitions.
But Straw said: "The prospect of it happening is inconceivable."
