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Quake-Prone Mexico Ill-Prepared For a Tsunami
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MEXICO: January 17, 2005


MEXICO CITY - Despite a history of tsunamis, Mexico's earthquake-prone Pacific coast and its spectacular beach resorts are ill-prepared for a wave near the scale of last month's Indian Ocean tsunami, experts say.


A package of recommendations on tsunami awareness drawn up by geophysicists in the late 1990s has been gathering dust in the offices of CENAPRED, Mexico's disaster prevention center, ever since, due to a lack of funds, officials there say.

And while the Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning System should mean all countries in the region get early warning of big waves generated by quakes in the Pacific ocean, officials in Mexico have little faith in word getting from the government to coastal residents fast enough.

"The odds are, the alert would get there too late," said marine geophysicist Osvaldo Sanchez at the UNAM university in Mexico City.

Even worse, a tsunami generated by a quake off Mexico's Pacific coast could hit with hardly any warning at all. Tsunami experts say coastal residents urgently need to be trained to run to high ground at the first sign of a tremor.

"What we have is very poor. There's not much awareness of the phenomenon. We handed out some leaflets a few years ago, but not widely," said Oscar Fuentes, a researcher at CENAPRED.

"This needs to be improved. We need simulations and drills. We need to spread information in low-lying coastal areas and show people high areas they could run to."

Thousands of the more than 160,000 victims of the Asian tsunami may have been spared had warnings reached countries like Sri Lanka, India and Thailand before the waves struck.

While the United Nations is working on a global warning system, it is down to individual governments to ensure they can get word out to remote coastal areas with poor communications.

"It's better to just be prepared than to worry about if or when one could happen," said geophysicist Modesto Ortiz at CICESE, a science university at Ensenada on the northern Pacific coast.


HORSES IN TREES

Mexico is no stranger to earthquakes and tsunamis. A quake killed at least 10,000 people in Mexico City in 1985.

A 17-foot (five-metre) tsunami hit the Pacific town of La Manzanilla in 1995 after an earthquake nearby but no one was killed.

A huge tsunami in 1932 leveled the fishing village of Cuyutlan. While little is known of earlier tsunamis, historic archives tell of horses stuck in trees, Fuentes said.

Scientists fear Guerrero state, home to the massive tourist resort of Acapulco, is long overdue for an earthquake.

They worry that few of the foreigners, mostly Americans, that fill hotels and holiday homes would know to run to high ground.

"We're not prepared at all. We're very exposed here with no hills. I wouldn't know where to run," said Michel Fornes, the French owner of a small beach hotel north of Acapulco who monitors the radio for storm warnings.

Yet for a nearby earthquake a warning could come too late.

"Seismologists need five to 10 minutes to determine there has been an earthquake off the coast. That's the time it would take a tsunami to hit," Ortiz said.

"We need to spread the word: if the ground trembles the sea could rise. Run, don't wait for anyone to tell you," he said.

Despite dozens of minor tsunamis over the past century, Mexico is much more familiar with storms and floods and has focused on teaching people how to survive a hurricane.

The same goes for Central America, experts say, even though Nicaragua was thrashed by a tsunami in 1992.

After the tragedy in Asia, Fuentes said, CENAPRED will urge the government to fund a nationwide awareness campaign.

"Unfortunately it's only after a tragedy that people want to take action," he said. "This one happened somewhere else but we should be trying to make sure it doesn't happen in Mexico."


Story by Catherine Bremer


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE



© 2008 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
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