"Some significant change in the farm program is on the horizon," said Ralph Grossi of American Farmland Trust, a land preservation group.

The current farm law, estimated to cost about $52 billion over its 5-year life, expires with the 2007 crops.

Amid domestic complaints about the high cost of subsidies and world trade talks aimed to lower farm supports, proponents like Grossi say success is all but certain. A world trade panel has ruled US cotton subsidies are excessive, which could be a precedent for an attack on farm supports worldwide.

Faced with a record federal budget deficit, Congress will do some minor belt-tightening of farm programs this year. Major changes must wait until the next 5-year farm law is written.

FARMLAND CONSERVATION

Reformers say more emphasis on farmland stewardship -- paying farmers for soil, water and wildlife conservation, rather than the more expensive approach of idling land altogether -- would spread spending beyond grain, cotton and soybean farmers who now get crop subsidies.

The largest 10 percent of them get 80 percent of the money. That means "the vast majority of American farmers get little to nothing from the farm bill," said Gawain Kripke of Oxfam America, an international development and relief agency.

US farm subsidies encourage overproduction, which depresses prices and hurts farmers elsewhere, Kripke said.

"The overwhelming majority of poor people around the world are also farmers and rely on agriculture," he said. Oxfam also points the finger of blame at the European Union.

Oxfam is working with small-farm advocates and a handful of conservative think tanks in seeking a lower cap on US farm subsidies. The cap is now $360,000 a year, but can be easily circumvented.

President Bush has proposed a $250,000 limit, which is opposed by many Southern lawmakers.

"This is the right thing to do in policy terms. It's being blocked by a small, powerful elite," said Chuck Hassebrook, of the Center for Rural Affairs, a Nebraska group.

Big farmers use their federal subsidy checks to drive up the price of land and equipment, muscling aside small farmers, he said. If Congress cut crop subsidies by 10 percent, it could double outlays for rural economic development, he added.

SEEKING CONSENSUS ON REFORMS

Mainline farm groups oppose any change in the current farm program, including proposals for Congress to cut up to $5.3 billion out of agriculture programs over 5 years. They also generally oppose a change in the payment limit.

American Farmland Trust and Environmental Defense are taking the lead to find consensus among wildlife groups, environmental activists and fruit and vegetable growers for farm reforms.

They hope to draft a set of farm law reforms in coming months without splintering over their often-disparate goals. AFT's Grossi said the challenge facing the several dozen groups was to find over-arching ideas that will benefit everyone.

"We're encouraging a discussion about what a better safety net would look like," said Scot Faber of Environmental Defense.

There is interest among a wide variety of groups in a law that encourages exports, rewards land stewardship and stabilizes farm income during lean years, he said.

A remodeled, lower-cost safety net could include special aid to growers when prices slump and more use of insurance and other risk management tools, he added.

Farm lobbyists declined last month to comment on the potential impact of the newcomers to the farm bill debate. Mainline farm groups tend to have the ear of the House and Senate Agriculture committees far more than outsiders do.

Some analysts say Congress pays the greatest attention to the economics of the moment, rather than long-term philosophy, when it is time for one of the periodic revisions of farm policy.

The boom times of the 1990s brought the 1996 "Freedom to Farm" law that deregulated farming. Low prices inspired the 2002 law, which allowed much higher spending.

Agricultural economist Darryl Ray said reformers must find "things that politicians know are important on the ground" to succeed.