Indian Researchers See Above Normal Rains in June
Date: 12-Apr-05
Country: INDIA
The Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation said in its forecast, posted on its Internet site http://www.cmmacs.ernet.in/, that the June-September monsoon was expected to hit the southern state of Kerala around May 26.
The agency predicted the country as a whole would see "above normal rainfall" in June, and said large parts of the northeast and eastern regions were likely to see flooding in June.
Rain in the southwest monsoon season from June to September is vital to Asia's fourth-largest economy as its poorly irrigated farms generate more than a fifth of gross domestic product.
More importantly, nearly two-thirds of India's billion-plus people earn money from agriculture, so a timely arrival and an even distribution of rain are key indicators of eventual demand for goods ranging from cement and steel to TVs and motorcycles.
The economic impact of the monsoon can be gauged from the fact that erratic rains in July-September last year caused farm output in October-December to fall 1.1 percent on the previous year, slowing overall growth to 6.2 percent -- the weakest expansion in more than a year.
In 2004, rain arrived over the southern Kerala coast two weeks ahead of schedule in mid-May and rainfall was 110 percent of the long-term average in June before an El Nino condition off the west coast of South America affected the monsoon from July.
Overall monsoon rains in June-September were 13 percent below the long-period average, with poor rain in the key July-August sowing season hurting the output of winter-harvested crops such as rice, oilseeds and cotton.
The forecast by the institute, a unit of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, is the first prediction for the country's monsoon rains in 2005 by any Indian agency.
The government's India Meteorological Department usually releases its widely followed forecast in May after analysing various climatic variables.
Earlier on Monday, a leading economic think tank forecast India's economy would expand 6.6 percent in the financial year to March 2006, on the back of robust farm and industrial growth.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said it estimated farm sector output would grow 3.1 percent, up from 1.1 percent in the previous year.
