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Forecaster Predicts Busy 2006 US Hurricane Season |
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| UK: December 8, 2005 | ||
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LONDON - The United States and Caribbean, which are still trying to rebuild from this year's devastating storms, should brace themselves for another busy hurricane season in 2006, a leading windstorm forecaster has warned.
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The United States is still counting the cost of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, which ravaged the Gulf Coast and may cost insurers up to $70 billion, but could face further devastation next year, London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said in a statement issued on Tuesday evening. But it soothed anxieties that 2006 may see a repeat of this year. "Despite the forecast for another active hurricane season in 2006, the chance of seeing as many as five intense hurricanes in the Gulf (as happened in 2005) is extremely remote," said Professor Mark Saunders, TSR's lead scientist. In its long-range forecast for next year TSR predicts an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with a strong probability that more hurricanes will slam into the United States than usual, based on average figures for the period between 1950 and 2005. It predicts five tropical storms striking the US, of which two will be hurricanes, while it forecasts two tropical storms will hit the Caribbean, of which one will be a hurricane. TSR said its forecast is based on two factors that combine to produce an above-average number of hurricanes. These are weaker than normal trade winds, which blow westwards across the tropical Atlantic ocean and Caribbean sea, and warmer than normal sea temperatures between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes develop. TSR, whose long-range outlooks for the past three years have proven accurate, is sponsored by the reinsurance broker Benfield Group, the insurer Royal & SunAlliance and claims assessor Crawford & Co.
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REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
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