ANALYSIS - Spanish Nuclear Industry Hopes for Reprieve
Date: 26-May-06
Country: SPAIN
Author: Julia Hayley
Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who has pledged to reduce the weight of nuclear power, is due to present to parliament the conclusions of six months of government-led discussions on the subject.
A major change of policy is unlikely, said a utilities analyst. "But I think there's potential for a change of tone."
Nuclear power has forced its way back as an option in Britain and elsewhere as governments look for ways to secure future energy supplies while curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
There has been no hint the Spanish government is about to follow British Prime Minister Tony Blair's declaration last week that replacement of ageing nuclear power stations is "back on the agenda with a vengeance."
But the nuclear industry hopes that during next week's state of the nation debate the government will adopt a more pragmatic approach than its campaign promises imply.
The Socialists, who took power in 2004, have yet to respond to pressure from environmental groups to draw up a schedule of closure dates for Spain's eight operational nuclear reactors.
"To go ahead with closures, the government would need a realistic, viable alternative and that's difficult to achieve," Eduardo Gonzalez, chairman of the industry group Foro Nuclear said in an interview with Reuters this week.
Spain imports 80 percent of its energy, mostly in the form of oil and gas, and runs a large trade deficit as a result. To make matters worse, electricity demand is growing by 3 or 4 percent a year fuelled by economic growth of around 3 percent.
"Spain has to look at ways to diversify its energy mix and reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons as a national priority," Paul Isbell, senior analyst at the Royal Elcano Institute, said in a recent paper on the subject.
The six months of talks, which concluded on May 17, involved environmentalists, government and utilities as well as the nuclear sector itself. So far, the government has said only that it favours widening the debate by opening it up to the public.
PUTTING OFF ISSUE IS GOOD NEWS FOR INDUSTRY
Spain's nuclear plants are owned by the three big utilities Endesa, Iberdrola and Union Fenosa. Hidrocantabrico, part of Energias de Portugal, has a stake in one of them.
The nuclear lobby thinks the longer the government delays, the better.
One plant, Zorita, shut down as scheduled in April this year and had a history of technical problems.
The next oldest, a 450 MW reactor at Santa Maria de Garona in northern central Spain dating from 1971, has a licence to operate until 2009 and its review will start this year.
Gonzalez is confident this plant will win an extension, and that will be a first step towards extending the lifespan of all the others to 60 years from 40.
"In June we will ask for another 10 years for Garona ... and I think that if it is functioning well it will obtain a licence," Gonzalez said.
The plant's case will be referred to the Nuclear Safety Council which has two years to make its recommendation to the government. Spain is due to hold a general election in 2008 and current opinion polls show the Socialists comfortably ahead of the conservative opposition.
The nuclear industry is betting that the Socialist Party will tone down its anti-nuclear tone if it wins a second term.
Ultimately that could mean more nuclear power, not less, Gonzalez said. "We are entering a time of scarcity of raw materials ... We think we will need to build new (nuclear) plants in the medium term."
Marcel Coderch, secretary general of the Association for the Study of Energy Resources in Barcelona, took part in the discussion group that has just concluded.
"I don't expect any change of policy now, but after the next election, and if the EU takes a more positive line towards nuclear power, there may be some move," he told Reuters.
"Spanish industry's best hope is that the government will agree to