Japan PM Hopes to Take Climate Leadership at Davos
Date: 25-Jan-08
Country: JAPAN
Author: Chisa Fujioka
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, set to host the Group of Eight summit in July, will likely back a target for Japan to cut its carbon emissions beyond the 2012 expiry of the Kyoto Protocol at a meeting of political and business leaders in Davos, Switzerland, on Saturday, Japanese media have said.
But emissions targets are a contentious issue at home, where business groups are fiercely opposed to profit-threatening policies such as a carbon tax or a European-style mandatory cap-and-trade system to penalise polluters.
And with Fukuda's popularity sagging amid a policy deadlock with opposition parties, he may lack the clout for bold steps.
"Japan needs to commit to targets if it wants to take leadership in fighting climate change, but for targets to be met, there need to be policies," said Fukashi Utsunomiya, professor emeritus of environment policy at Tokai University.
"It won't be acceptable for Japan to announce a target it can't reach."
At United Nations-led talks in Bali last month, Japan sided with the United States to reject a European Union-backed emissions cut target beyond 2012, prompting outrage among environmentalists.
The criticism has raised doubts among analysts about whether Japan will be able to take the initiative at the G8 summit this year, where climate change looks set to become a major topic when leaders convene in the northern resort of Toyako in July.
Under pressure to show his enthusiasm for the issue, Fukuda is also likely to urge major emitters to each set targets for reducing carbon dioxide to be achieved before 2050, media said.
Fukuda's predecessor, Shinzo Abe, proposed last year a global target to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but the plan, dubbed "Cool Earth 50", was shrugged off as too vague and lacking teeth without binding targets.
BEYOND 2012 Mutsuyoshi Nishimura, special adviser to the cabinet on climate change, said last week that Fukuda would present a "positive disposition" at Davos but that even without targets, Japan was still focused on fighting global warming beyond 2012.
Japan is the world's fifth-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming, but the only one among the top five under pressure to meet a Kyoto target.
The United States refused to ratify the protocol, Russia is on track to meet its goal and the pact set no targets for China and India.
While Japan has said it can meet its Kyoto goal of cutting emissions by 6 percent from 1990 levels over the 2008-2012 period, analysts say any midterm, post-Kyoto target would be tough to meet without fresh policy steps.
"Given the technology now, there are going to be limits on how much energy Japan can save, and the only other option Japan has is to buy carbon credits from overseas," said Kuniyuki Nishimura, research director at Mitsubishi Research Institute.
So far, Japan has encouraged industries to agree to voluntary emissions cuts, buy CO2 credits on the international market or claim credits by funding projects that cut emissions elsewhere.
Broad public interest in fighting climate change was also lacking, analysts said, making it less likely the government or businesses would come up with aggressive steps to cut emissions.
"One idea is for industries to raise goods prices, saying they will use the money to invest in energy-saving technology," said Mitsubishi Research's Nishimura.
"But public awareness is not up to the level yet that they will support such an idea."
(Reporting by Chisa Fujioka; Editing by Hugh Lawson)