G8 Climate Targets Unlikely - British Official
Date: 04-Jul-08
Country: UK
G8 leaders agreed last year in Germany to consider seriously a global goal of halving emissions by 2050 and climate campaigners want this year's gathering to endorse that target.
However, the United States has said it will only set targets if major emerging economies such as China are on board and few now expect real progress until a meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 to discuss a framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol.
"The UN has a programme of negotiations leading up to 2009 and this won't pre-empt that, or anticipate that," said a British government official who briefed reporters ahead of the G8 summit but declined to be named.
The G8 nations will meet eight other countries, including China, India and Brazil, in an expanded Major Economies Meeting (MEM) on July 9 which will focus on climate change and look at long-term targets.
"Is there any chance of it being adopted by the 16 countries as the long-term goal? No, I don't think so," he said. "Is there any chance for us getting a bit closer to narrowing the gap and agreeing that that could be the target? Yes, I think so."
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda wants more momentum on the post-Kyoto framework and needs a successful summit to dampen speculation his party will drop him when it is over.
Japan is urging the leaders to agree to a common vision of a 50 percent cut by 2050, without specifying a base year.
The British official said the summit would be more of a chance for the leaders to start a dialogue on targets and look at narrowing differences ahead of the Copenhagen talks.
"There are signs in the discussions we've been having that we are narrowing the differences," the official said.
"People are starting to realise the shape of what has to be decided in 2009 -- it's starting to be clearer -- and I think there will be progress there. But don't expect a breakthrough on the 2009 deal in July 2008," he said.
Major emerging economies are reluctant to commit to binding targets. China and India, whose economies are growing at around 10 percent a year, have said there is no reason to sign up to a solution to a problem they did not cause.
(Editing by Mary Gabriel)